don't talk to me about the butt rockies

a coworker friend of mine told me this the other day:

"you know who i think is gonna make the wildcard? the rockies. the guy on espn said that last night."

that "guy on espn" was steve phillips, he of this piece of genius and other general dumbness on the set of baseball tonight. i was a little surprised that my friend would simply hear something on t.v. and just believe it. in his defense, i suppose, he's an admitted todd helton homer. still, that's not really an excuse for taking anything steve phillips says seriously. if people's opinions generally are to be taken with a grain of salt, steve phillips' should be taken with a carton of morton's.

however, i'm not here today to talk about the past. this post is about the wildcard races, specifically, my gut feeling on how the final 3.43 weeks are going to play out. i'll also give my divisional winner picks, though not with as much talking. first though, before i get to the leagues, i need to make a special request to the media, to please not say anything like this for the rest of the season:

"I really think [insert team name] is s.o.l. because they've got too many teams ahead of them."

this position is one most-commonly held among beliefs among media types, yet it's entirely false. the number of teams ahead of a given team, by itself, has exactly zero to do with said team's chances of winning the wildcard race. the only thing that matters is (1) how many games behind first they are and (2) how many games they win from here to the end of the year. that's it. i mean, think about it-- if there were 300 teams in the league, you could conceivably have like 50 teams between you and the first place team, and yet be only like 3 games out of first. so what do those other 50 teams have to do with anything? nothing. all that matters is that you're 3 out of first with however many you've got left to play. if you go on a 6 game winning streak, and everyone else between you and first plays .500, suddenly you're in first. (holy crap!!! how did you jump over 50 teams like that??? OMG!!!!) it should go without saying, but you just need to win your games. al davis, in perhaps his only moment of genius, was 100% right when he said "just win, baby."

American League:
my preseason pick to win the central was the tigers, so i'm not ready to count them out of the playoffs just yet (though i do concede the division to the indians). the returns of sheffield and the roaster comes not a moment too soon. at time of posting, they were only 3 behind the yankees, and, thank goodness, there aren't a zillion teams they have to climb over. the baseball fan in me wants to see the tigers come back, but the realist in me sees them fading a bit (more). which, speaking of fading, the mariners are also only 3 back, but i have even less faith in them. i don't even think the city of seattle believes in them. really, they've seemed to play over their heads this year, and bad pitching, combined with questionable decision making (such as consistently playing this while giving stupidly little playing time to better players) will catch up to them. so my pick, begrudgingly, is the yankees, because joe torre knows good picks. (also, obviously, i'm assuming the red sox will win the east, and the angels will take the west.)

National League:
as the title of this post suggests, i'm kinda tired of hearing about this team. no, steve phillips, they're not going to make it. the only reason you and others even talk about them is because they're someone different. they're non-threatening, not really hateable, generally unknown players anyway. the average american can't and won't refute it, but instead will just say "oh the rockies huh? ok, whatever." history indicates however that they have basically no tradition of winning, and that doesn't seem likely to turn around this year. also probably out of it include my beloved braves and limeade's cardinals (yes, i know limeade will probably be angry to read that and try to refute it, but i think their injury problems are just too much to overcome, and they've only got 3 games left with the pirates. they used up all their luck last year.) the dodgers, not so much this year. i like their chances better in '08, when they'll (hopefully, for happy ninja's sake) have more experienced young kids and fewer old powerless has-beens. phillies annual september phade is already underway. so i'll go with the padres to win the west, d-backs to (somehow) win the wildcard, mets to take the east. in the central, this is a tough call. i'm leaning towards the cubs but the brewers were my preseason pick, so i must stay loyal. but i won't be surprised if the cubs win it, or if lou piniella actually stabs an umpire.