Thursday, September 27, 2007

...and there's no way to know the future foe scenarios

heading into baseball's final weekend, still nothing is determined in the NL playoff picture, where 7 teams fight for 4 spots. i know E!SPN has already mentioned this fact about 12 million times but still i find it pretty intriguing. this has never happened before in baseball history. the rockies(!) 11-game win streak put them in position to win the division, and they could even win homefield advantage(!!!!!) throughout the NL playoffs. or, of course, they could still miss them altogether. the exact same can be said for the mets, who were a lock only two weeks ago.

so, in true fiscal musings style, i ask a question to my readers (both of you)... is all of this a product of the National League's parity, or mediocrity?

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

new top 25: shakeups

hopefully i have thus far proven that i am willing and able to shuffle teams around based on how strong or weak i perceive them to be. and i'm happily surprised with how the AP pollsters have done this year. i really think that app state upset caused them all to rethink things and take their jobs more seriously, as in, actually think about it critically every week... anyway here are my rankings this week, followed by some observations:




record
prev






1 USC
3-0
1
2 LSU
4-0
2
3 Florida
4-0
3
4 Oklahoma
4-0
4
5 W. Virginia
4-0
5
6 Texas
4-0
6
7 Ohio St
3-0
9
8 Rutgers
3-0
7
9 California
4-0
8
10 Oregon
4-0
11
11 Kentucky
4-0
14
12 Boston Coll.
4-0
16
13 Clemson
4-0
23
14 S. Carolina
3-1
12
15 Wisconsin
4-0
10
16 Cincinnati
4-0
18
17 S. Florida
3-0
21
18 Nebrask
3-1
17
19 Missouri
4-0
--
20 Georgia
3-1
--
21 Virginia Tech
3-1
22
22 Hawaii
4-0
25
23 Penn State
3-1
13
24 Arizona State
4-0
--
25 Alabama
3-1
19






dropouts: louisville (15), ga tech (20)

- i've said it already a few times before, but kentucky's andre woodson is the real thing. happy ninja is right that he's the most pro-ready QB right now, even more so than the ones getting all the publicity such as brohm. another good less-than-heralded one to watch for is bc's matt ryan.

- oklahoma is really good but i don't see why the AP voters gave them the nod at #3 over florida this week. they still haven't played a tough game and this saturday at colorado doesn't count as a challenge either. if they beat down a tough rival by 39 like florida did a week ago then maybe i'll see it. and yes, the gators did beat ole sis by only 6 points on saturday but realize that was their first road game and about 70% of their team is freshman and sophomores. this fact is good news for the next 2 to 3 years but bad news for 2 weeks from now when they head to death valley.

- i'm a little uncertain why the media sort of automatically stops notre dame's projected losing streak at 0-8, before the navy game. i realize navy hasn't beaten them in like 900,000,000,000,000,000,000 years but the irish are just unspeakably bad this year. i honestly believe any top 10 1-AA school could beat them right now on their home field. however, for the record, i don't think they'll even get to 0-8, and certainly not 0-12 (not with duke on that schedule). i actually think they've got a fairly good shot at beating purdue, who they've owned historically, and match up well against, this saturday. but they may not beat navy, who undoubtedly knows this is their best chance for the next few years.

- after the braves beat the brewers 7-4 last sunday, the score was announced at wrigley field, and then cubs fans did this:

whether you're a braves fan or not, that's just cool.

Saturday, September 22, 2007

prevent thyself a victory

iowa goes 29 minutes in the first half vs. wisconsin and can't do more than piss on the football, then in one minute they go the length of the field and score a TD. why? because wisconsin was playing a soft prevent.

it's not like i'm rooting for wisconsin or against iowa. i'm just watching a football game because it's on. but i've seen this scenario play out time and time again, both in college and in the nfl. why doesn't the coach just continue to use the defense that has worked the whole game? why does he let the opposing team dictate what they will do on defense? and so i ask the question: when will a coach rise up and say "no, i will not use the prevent defense, because it sucks."

dumb

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Movie Preview: Good Luck Chuck

editor's note: for more information on this idea that i completely stole, click here

here is dane cook's latest assault on the american public. (THERE'S ONLY ONE OCTOBER!) the early commercials for this movie left me somewhat confused, as in, i wasn't sure if i was seeing a preview for an actual movie or old clips of the three stooges. i mean, i like physical comedy as much as the next guy, but it looked like it was going to be 90 minutes of just that. but it's like, actual words are good too, y'know? however, the latest commercials suggest some token semblance of a plot, like perhaps cook's character has to learn some valuable life lesson before he can get the girl, or something. ultimately, this is more or less just a vehicle for dane's tired/lifted jokes and an excuse to get jessica alba on the big screen. not that the latter is necessarily a bad thing, though.

prediction: 5/10

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Your new top 25: Rocky Butt

After this weekend's annihilation at the hands of the Gators, the peasants are calling for Vols' coach Phillip Fulmer's head. A friend of mine predicts a 4-8 finish for UT this season. Of their games left, they will definitely lose to: Kentucky, South Carolina, and Alabama. If Arkansas learns to play a little defense, they'll beat them too. So there's 6 losses right there. They will, however, beat Vandy, Arkansas State, and Louisiana Lafayette, and they should beat Mississippi State. Georgia will be the swing game. While I maintain that 4-8 is pessimistic, 6-6 may be the ceiling.

Phillip Fulmer is actually very similar to Lloyd Carr. Both won national titles in the late 90's, and ever since they've seemed rather satisfied with themselves and have underachieved when you consider the top-caliber talent they consistently receive. Both are also stuck in outdated offensive mind-sets. In today's game, you have to be able to spread the field and use all of your players, and you also need speed. Carr and Fulmer either don't understand this or don't believe it.

Other various observations:

- USC is good and fast. I believe happy ninja was right, many people in the media somehow forgot this during their off week. Not that they had any trouble remembering this during the 2005 bowl season. But I digress... Just for the sake of not seeing any more supposedly "tough road tests" turn into one giant bendover by the other team, I'd like to see someone actually challenge these guys. Oregon? Cal?... Washington?

- Auburn's Tommy Tuberville is probably another one on the hot seat. There's a saying here in SEC country that every team gets a bye week and a Sly week. It's simply understood that you can't lose either of those weeks. Or at least, you really shouldn't, for your job security's sake, get croomed. Auburn already has 2 home losses and they haven't even played the tough parts of their schedule: Georgia is always a tough game. Florida will run roughshod on them. LSU might actually murder them. (All 3 of those are on the road, by the way) Alabama will end their 5-year losing streak to their rival this year. Again, 6-6 may be the best this team can hope for.

- Louisville has no defense to speak of. In fairness, Kentucky is somehow pretty good this year. Don't be surprised if (when) Cincinnati upsets the Cardinals on October 13th.

- I thought we had a good defense...


wk 3 (thru 9/16)





record
prev






1 USC
2-0
2
2 LSU
3-0
1
3 Florida
3-0
3
4 Oklahoma
3-0
4
5 W. Virginia
3-0
5
6 Texas
3-0
6
7 Rutgers
3-0
7
8 California
3-0
8
9 Ohio St
3-0
12
10 Wisconsin
3-0
10
11 Oregon
3-0
17
12 S. Carolina
3-0
16
13 Penn State
3-0
19
14 Kentucky
3-0
--
15 Louisville
2-1
13
16 Boston Coll.
3-0
--
17 Nebraska
2-1
9
18 Cincinnati
3-0
25
19 Alabama
3-0
--
20 Ga Tech
2-1
11
21 S. Florida
3-0
18
22 Va Tech
2-1
15
23 Clemson
3-0
--
24 Texas Tech
3-0
22
25 Hawaii
3-0
24






dropouts: ucla (14), tcu (20), arkansas (21), byu (23)

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Goodell: I am the law

Another smackdown has been given by Roger Goodell. Bill Belicheck was fined $500,000 for videogate or spygate or spy game or whatever it's being called now. Interestingly, the Patriots themselves were fined "only" half that amount. Also, the Pats will lose either their 1st round pick if they make the playoffs or their 2nd and 3rd round picks if they miss the playoffs.

My take on this: Good call, and message sent. Say what you will about his vigilante style, but Roger Goodell means business. He's doing his best to take the riff raff and cheating out of the NFL, and he is showing no favoritism whatsoever, as evidenced by this punishment to arguably America's favorite NFL team.

There are those that may say the videotaping had no effect on whether or not the Patriots won games, or that they're "just trying to get a competitive edge," or "if you're not cheating you're not trying." All of those statements may very well be true. The fact remains that the Patriots cheated and attempted to gain an illegal advantage. The NFL's stance has to be either that this is ok or that this is not ok. If it's the latter, then they have to be penalized. Goodell is also within his rights to make sure the other teams understand this, i.e. make an example of them via stiff penalty. If the Patriots had not already been warned about this last year in Green Bay, I would agree with those that say the penalty is too severe. But as it is, they can't claim ignorance, as Belicheck attempted to do in his statement today, and I believe their punishment is fair.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Top 25 through Sept 9th (Week 2)

Here are the new rankings. The lesson this week: don't allow 42 points to Middle Tennessee State.




record
prev






1 LSU
2-0
2
2 USC
1-0
1
3 Florida
2-0
3
4 Oklahoma
2-0
4
5 W. Virginia
2-0
6
6 Texas
2-0
7
7 Rutgers
2-0
9
8 California
2-0
10
9 Nebrask
2-0
12
10 Wisconsin
2-0
11
11 Ga Tech
2-0
13
12 Ohio St
2-0
15
13 Louisville
2-0
8
14 UCLA
2-0
16
15 Va Tech
1-1
5
16 S. Carolina
2-0
--
17 Oregon
2-0
--
18 S. Florida
2-0
24
19 Penn State
2-0
22
20 TCU
1-1
18
21 Arkansas
1-0
23
22 Texas Tech
2-0
19
23 BYU
1-1
20
24 Hawaii
2-0
21
25 Cincinnati
2-0
--






dropouts: auburn (25), georgia (17), boise state (14)

Friday, September 7, 2007

Movie Preview: 3:10 to Yuma

editor's note: for detailed info on this idea that i completely stole, click this

this may come as a surprise to some, but i really enjoy a good western movie. tombstone is my favorite so far, and now this new one (actually a remake) looks very promising. it stars two very good, capable actors in christian bale and russell crowe. bale has helped resurrect a dying franchise, and crowe somehow made a movie about 19th century sailors actually entertaining (i mean, i've actually even seen it more than once). so i have much faith that these guys can pull this off. since it's a remake, there's at least some plot to it. else they wouldn't make it again, right? anyway, this will be a really good movie. and i am done.
prediction: 9/10

Thursday, September 6, 2007

don't talk to me about the butt rockies

a coworker friend of mine told me this the other day:

"you know who i think is gonna make the wildcard? the rockies. the guy on espn said that last night."

that "guy on espn" was steve phillips, he of this piece of genius and other general dumbness on the set of baseball tonight. i was a little surprised that my friend would simply hear something on t.v. and just believe it. in his defense, i suppose, he's an admitted todd helton homer. still, that's not really an excuse for taking anything steve phillips says seriously. if people's opinions generally are to be taken with a grain of salt, steve phillips' should be taken with a carton of morton's.

however, i'm not here today to talk about the past. this post is about the wildcard races, specifically, my gut feeling on how the final 3.43 weeks are going to play out. i'll also give my divisional winner picks, though not with as much talking. first though, before i get to the leagues, i need to make a special request to the media, to please not say anything like this for the rest of the season:

"I really think [insert team name] is s.o.l. because they've got too many teams ahead of them."

this position is one most-commonly held among beliefs among media types, yet it's entirely false. the number of teams ahead of a given team, by itself, has exactly zero to do with said team's chances of winning the wildcard race. the only thing that matters is (1) how many games behind first they are and (2) how many games they win from here to the end of the year. that's it. i mean, think about it-- if there were 300 teams in the league, you could conceivably have like 50 teams between you and the first place team, and yet be only like 3 games out of first. so what do those other 50 teams have to do with anything? nothing. all that matters is that you're 3 out of first with however many you've got left to play. if you go on a 6 game winning streak, and everyone else between you and first plays .500, suddenly you're in first. (holy crap!!! how did you jump over 50 teams like that??? OMG!!!!) it should go without saying, but you just need to win your games. al davis, in perhaps his only moment of genius, was 100% right when he said "just win, baby."

American League:
my preseason pick to win the central was the tigers, so i'm not ready to count them out of the playoffs just yet (though i do concede the division to the indians). the returns of sheffield and the roaster comes not a moment too soon. at time of posting, they were only 3 behind the yankees, and, thank goodness, there aren't a zillion teams they have to climb over. the baseball fan in me wants to see the tigers come back, but the realist in me sees them fading a bit (more). which, speaking of fading, the mariners are also only 3 back, but i have even less faith in them. i don't even think the city of seattle believes in them. really, they've seemed to play over their heads this year, and bad pitching, combined with questionable decision making (such as consistently playing this while giving stupidly little playing time to better players) will catch up to them. so my pick, begrudgingly, is the yankees, because joe torre knows good picks. (also, obviously, i'm assuming the red sox will win the east, and the angels will take the west.)

National League:
as the title of this post suggests, i'm kinda tired of hearing about this team. no, steve phillips, they're not going to make it. the only reason you and others even talk about them is because they're someone different. they're non-threatening, not really hateable, generally unknown players anyway. the average american can't and won't refute it, but instead will just say "oh the rockies huh? ok, whatever." history indicates however that they have basically no tradition of winning, and that doesn't seem likely to turn around this year. also probably out of it include my beloved braves and limeade's cardinals (yes, i know limeade will probably be angry to read that and try to refute it, but i think their injury problems are just too much to overcome, and they've only got 3 games left with the pirates. they used up all their luck last year.) the dodgers, not so much this year. i like their chances better in '08, when they'll (hopefully, for happy ninja's sake) have more experienced young kids and fewer old powerless has-beens. phillies annual september phade is already underway. so i'll go with the padres to win the west, d-backs to (somehow) win the wildcard, mets to take the east. in the central, this is a tough call. i'm leaning towards the cubs but the brewers were my preseason pick, so i must stay loyal. but i won't be surprised if the cubs win it, or if lou piniella actually stabs an umpire.

Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Top 25 through week 1




record
prev.






1 usc
1-0
1
2 lsu
1-0
2
3 florida
1-0
3
4 oklahoma
1-0
7
5 va tech
1-0
4
6 w. virginia
1-0
6
7 texas
1-0
5
8 louisville
1-0
9
9 rutgers
1-0
8
10 california
1-0
10
11 wisconsin
1-0
11
12 braskypants
1-0
13
13 ga tech
1-0
15
14 boise st
1-0
12
15 ohio st
1-0
16
16 ucla
1-0
20
17 georgia
1-0
17
18 tcu
1-0
21
19 tx tech
1-0
--
20 byu
1-0
24
21 hawaii
1-0
--
22 penn state
1-0
--
23 arkansas
1-0
--
24 s florida
1-0
--
25 auburn
1-0
--

dropouts: michigan, florida state, tennessee, arizona

***
- Appalachian State pulled off (likely) the greatest upset in the history of college football last week (I think I smell another top 10 list). However, they aren't eligible for Division 1-A polls, so I won't try to rank them here either. There are 1-AA polls, where they are actually ranked #1.

- My attempt each week will be to re-evaluate the teams as they've done so far for the entire season. Therefore, a win doesn't guarantee a move up nor does a loss guarantee a move down. In other words, my most-recent rankings won't be influenced only by what I previously thought.

- Lloyd Carr will not coach Michigan in 2008. There are 50 sandwiches with my name on them if I'm wrong on this. But I won't be.

Saturday, September 1, 2007

Appalachian St. 34, Michigan 32

It's a great weekend already. I could probably just stare at that score for the next 3 months.

The pollsters need to do the right thing here and drop Michigan completely out of the Top 25. Congratulations to the Mountaineers. They exposed Michigan, and to an extent the entire Big 10, for the frauds that they are.